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Prediction for CME (2026-04-23T05:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-23T05:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45789/-1
CME Note: CME whose bulk is seen to the northeast with wider shock seen to due east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs in association with a long duration M1.2 class solar flare from AR4420 near N16E40. The EUV signature is characterized by a circular EUV wave and dimming signature during the eruption seen best in SDO AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-04-25T19:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-26T07:52Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-23 08:59
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-23 05:12
 - Radial speed: 889.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: N16E40
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.2 (N18E43). Peak at 2026-04-23 04:50
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 532.62 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2026-04-26 07:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 74.67 hours)
Lead Time: 42.97 hour(s)
Difference: -12.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2026-04-24T00:30Z
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